Polling can be unpredictable, and results often depend on the methodology, wording of questions, and the knowledge level of respondents. This is especially true when it comes to issues like gun control, where public opinion can shift based on events, media narratives, and political framing.
This is why many experts believe that the only poll that truly matters is the one conducted on Election Day. As history has shown, even professional polling can fail to predict outcomes accurately—such as in the case of President Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016. Similarly, when it comes to firearm-related polling, results do not always provide a precise picture of where Americans stand on gun control and the Second Amendment.
Declining Support for Handgun Bans
One of the most consistent trends in firearm polling is the decline in support for banning handguns. Gallup, one of the oldest and most respected polling institutions, has been surveying Americans on this issue since the 1950s. In 1959, support for banning handguns peaked at 60%. Over the decades, that number has steadily declined, and today, only 20% of Americans support a handgun ban—the lowest level in over 60 years. Among Democrats, traditionally more supportive of gun control measures, support for banning handguns has reached a historic low of 33%.
This indicates that while the gun control debate remains polarizing, a broad consensus exists that handguns should not be outlawed. However, opinions become more divided when the conversation shifts to other types of firearms.
The Misleading Nature of “Assault Rifle” Polling
While the American public largely opposes banning handguns, Gallup polling shows more division regarding so-called “assault rifles.” In its most recent survey, 52% of respondents supported banning “semi-automatic guns, known as assault rifles,” while 47% opposed such a ban. Although this represents a majority in favor of restrictions, it is a notable decline from 61% support in 2019.
However, this question illustrates a fundamental issue in firearm polling: the terminology is often misleading. The phrase “assault rifle” is frequently used to describe semi-automatic firearms, but in reality, an assault rifle—by definition—must be capable of fully automatic fire. The firearms that gun control advocates seek to ban are often categorized as “assault weapons” or “military-style firearms,” classifications that are not standardized and have no technical meaning in firearms terminology.
When poll questions fail to clearly define terms or conflate different categories of firearms, it becomes difficult to gauge the true stance of the public. If respondents do not fully understand what they are being asked, their answers may not accurately reflect their views.
Handguns vs. 'Assault Weapons?’
Handguns are responsible for the vast majority of firearm-related homicides in the U.S., far outnumbering those committed with rifles.
FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (2019):
- Handguns: 6,368 firearm-related homicides
- Rifles (including AR-15s): 364 firearm-related homicides
Despite this, politicians and the media focus heavily on banning “assault weapons” because mass shootings—though statistically rare—generate fear, outrage, and headlines that sell. This emotional framing boosts viewership and political fundraising but does little to address the real source of gun violence: handguns. Specially illegal handguns.
Additionally, the term “assault rifle” is often misused. True assault rifles—used by the military—are fully automatic, while the firearms targeted in political debates are semi-automatic rifles, functionally similar to many handguns.
This cycle of sensationalism over substance hurts both sides of the debate, preventing meaningful discussions on effective gun policy. The result? Policies driven by emotion and media influence, rather than facts and public safety.
How Well Do Americans Understand Gun Laws?
Another commonly polled question asks whether gun laws should be made “more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now.” In Gallup’s latest survey, 56% of respondents supported stricter gun laws, while 33% wanted laws to remain the same. However, this question is also overly simplistic for a complex issue.
Many Americans—outside of firearm owners and gun rights advocates—lack detailed knowledge of existing gun laws. For example, every firearm purchased from a licensed dealer in the United States requires a background check. However, a common misconception is that gun shows provide a loophole to this requirement. Likewise, many are unaware that purchasing a firearm for someone who is legally prohibited from owning one is already a felony offense.
With so many existing firearm regulations already in place, the question of whether laws should be made “stricter” can be misleading if respondents do not have a clear understanding of what those laws currently entail.
An interesting (and dangerous) paradox is emerging: while many on the left openly oppose gun rights and vilify organizations like the NRA, firearm ownership among left-leaning individuals is rising. Given past instances of violent social unrest—such as street demonstrations that escalated into riots and property destruction—there is growing concern that heightened political anger could escalate into armed confrontations. With emotions running high, particularly due to what some call Trump Derangement Syndrome, the potential for politically motivated violence is becoming a concern, reinforcing why many on the right remain highly cautious about these issues.
The Challenge of Meaningful Firearm Polling
Ultimately, polling on gun control can be useful, but only when conducted with precision. If pollsters use vague or misleading terminology, or if respondents lack accurate knowledge of the subject, results can be skewed. Public perception of gun laws and firearm classifications is often shaped by media narratives and political rhetoric rather than by an understanding of current regulations.
As a result, polling on topics like “assault rifles,” “military-style firearms,” and background checks should be taken with a degree of skepticism. Without clear definitions and informed respondents, the results may not truly reflect what Americans think—or what policies they would support in practice.
